Abstract
Ukraine is a country of the Mid-Latitude ecotone—a transition zone between forest zone and forestless dry lands. Availability of water defines distribution of the country’s forests and decreases their productivity towards the south. Climate change generates a particular threat for Ukrainian forests and stability of agroforestry landscapes. This paper considers the impacts of expected climate change on vulnerability of Ukrainian forests using ensembles of global and regional climatic models (RCM) based on Scenarios B1, A2, A1B of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, and a “dry and warm” scenario A1B+T−P (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation). The spatially explicit assessment was provided by RCM for the WMO standard period (1961–1990), “recent” (1991–2010) and three future periods: 2011–2030, 2031–2050 and 2081–2100. Forest-climate model by Vorobjov and model of amplitude of flora’s tolerance to climate change by Didukh, as well as a number of specialized climatic indicators, were used in the assessment. Different approaches lead to rather consistent conclusions. Water stress is the major limitation factor of distribution and resilience of flatland Ukrainian forests. Within Scenario A1B, the area with unsuitable growth conditions for major forest forming species will substantially increase by end of the century occupying major part of Ukraine. Scenario A1B+T−P projects even a more dramatic decline of the country’s forests. It is expected that the boundary of conditions that are favorable for forests will shift to north and northwest, and forests of the xeric belt will be the most vulnerable. Consistent policies of adaptation and mitigation might reduce climate-induced risks for Ukrainian forests.
Highlights
During last centuries, temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere faced grave threats [1]
Typical features of the Mid-latitude ecotone include: (1) extremely high vulnerability of forests, due to differences in the magnitude of latitudinal and altitudinal lapse rates: along the latitudinal temperature gradient the temperature change amounts to 6.9 ◦C/1000 km while the vertical gradient is 5.0–6.5 ◦C/1000 m above sea level, and minor changes of temperature over flatland affect disproportionally large tracts as compared to mountain regions [7]; (2) high probability of ecologically harmful processes; (3) unsatisfactory state and structure of landscapes; and (4) high uncertainty of climatic predictions [8,9]
The maximal predicted rate of increasing average minimal temperature was defined for Scenario A2
Summary
Temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere faced grave threats [1]. Starting from the second half of the 20th century, climate change has brought new threats caused by hotter droughts of historically unprecedented severity, acceleration of natural disturbances, and worsening environment conditions due to air pollution, soil and water contamination [1]. This has led to widespread increasing mortality over the extra-tropical zones of the Northern Hemisphere [3], basically as a result of weather extremes and combination of direct and indirect impacts of disturbances [4,5]. The threat of new forest types formation, or transition to open woodland and non-forest vegetation is acute over the ecotone
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