Vulnerability of community to climate stress: An indicator-based investigation of Upper Gana watershed in Omo Gibe basin in Ethiopia

Abstract

The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as heavy rainfall and droughts are expected to increase with climate change and are predicted to severely affect the agriculture sector. However, drought vulnerability of rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa is not well documented, despite these communities being composed of mainly smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on rainfed agriculture. In this study, we evaluated the vulnerability of a rural community in Ethiopia to drought using both primary and secondary data. The primary data was generated from a household survey, whereas the secondary data was obtained from the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP) product. We decomposed vulnerability in to three components which are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to drought based on indices derived from the primary and secondary data. Results show that the average score for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity is nearly equal. High seasonal water variability coupled with severe, frequent, and long drought status increases exposure to drought in the study area. The main factor which affects sensitivity to drought in this community is the land cover. For adaptive capacity, the social capital of the community is low while their physical capital is high. The overall estimated drought vulnerability shows that the community is moderately vulnerable. The community's exposure and sensitivity analyses show the need to increase the amount of moisture stored within the soil with the adoption of appropriate soil and water conservation techniques. Results also show that the head of the household's educational level, the number of livestock owned, and annual income affect the community's adaptive capacity.