Vulnerability Assessment of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Davao City, Southern Philippines: Utilizing Global Predictors to Develop Localized Interventions

Abstract

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) – influenced by socioeconomic, environmental, andecological factors – pose a significant threat to both global economies and public health.Multiple EIDs have emerged in the 21st century, including the current coronavirus disease(COVID-19) pandemic associated with a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus2 (SARS-CoV2). Understanding the factors contributing to the emergence of EIDs is crucialfor mitigating its risks and preventing disease outbreaks that could escalate into epidemics andpandemics. Thus, this study developed a scoring index that could estimate the vulnerability ofan area concerning the emergence of novel EIDs using established global predictors – whichinclude socio-economic and demographic factors (population density, housing, and businesspermits), weather variables (humidity, precipitation, and temperature), animal hosts (livestockand domestic animal populations), and wildlife-livestock-human interfaces (wet markets,urban green spaces, and commercial animal farms). Davao City, located in the Southern partof the Philippines, was used as a study site, wherein its barangays represent the smallest unitof geopolitical communities. Barangays vulnerable to EIDs were determined based on theresulting EID index. Clustering of vulnerability index scores across communities was identifiedusing the Global Moran’s I and Getis-Ord General G statistic. The Getis-Ord Gi* and AnselinLocal Moran’s I were then used to identify the hotspot barangays most vulnerable to EIDs. Themost vulnerable areas to EIDs were barangays with larger urban green spaces and a highernumber of commercial animal farms and wet markets in Davao City. These most vulnerablebarangays were also clustered and located in the districts of Toril, Tugbok, and Calinan. Hence,an appropriate basic action plan for these most vulnerable barangays should be provided.Moreover, policies related to wildlife management and urban planning should be revisited,with emphasis on mitigating the risks (i.e. infectious disease surveillance, zoning, animal biosecurity, and sanitation and hygiene) associated with EIDs while giving equal importancetoward maintaining a stable local economy.