Vulnerability Assessment in RIS Scenario Through a Synergic Use of the CPTED Methodology and the System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

The 9/11 attacks dramatically stressed the fragility of our CI against terrorist and criminal actions. For their peculiarities and symbolic value, CI are largely exposed to attacks, as evident by the large number of targeted incidents that occurred. Within this context, the Railway Infrastructure System (RIS) holds a high-ranking position. Vulnerability analysis and quantitative simulation approach play a crucial role in identifying weak-points and outlying new and more appealing protection strategies. In this chapter, a vulnerability assessment mean fulfilled through a synergic use of System Dynamics method, CPTED (Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design) multidisciplinary approach and crime opportunity theories is depicted. The aim consists in analyzing how different factors may influence the railway asset attractiveness, fragility and vulnerability. Starting from the CPTED technique and situational crime prevention theories, we were able to outline which are the main physical, social and environmental aspects that provide opportunity for criminality in railway scenarios. Using the System Dynamics approach, we propose a pattern to model the railway asset scenario, integrating physical aspects and social factors. Results of simulations reproducing different operative conditions are presented and analyzed.