Voting behavior and electoral irregularities in Kenya's 2013 Election

Abstract

Data from a unique nationwide exit poll of 6258 voters are employed to explore two central themes of the 2013 Kenyan Election: (1) the correlates of individual vote choice; and (2) the credibility of the electoral process. The analysis reveals several striking relationships between an individual's vote choice, personal attributes, and perceptions of the campaign and candidates. We find that the leading coalitions mostly kept their co-ethnics together, although ethnic alliances proved somewhat less certain than in the past. We find that, for the most part, voters treated Uhuru Kenyatta – not sitting Prime Minister Raila Odinga – as the incumbent. The data show that campaign issues also influenced the vote: Odinga garnered more support on issues related to constitutional implementation, corruption, and the International Criminal Court (ICC), while Kenyatta won on the economy, employment, and security. Exit poll data also reveal irregularities in the electoral process, including some evidence of inflated vote totals benefitting the Jubilee coalition and illegal administrative activities. The data, while not definitive, are highly suggestive of a deeply flawed electoral process and challenge claims that Kenyatta won a majority in the first round.