VODYS: An Agent-Based Model for Exploring Campaign Dynamics

Abstract

The literature on campaigns has considered a number of factors that affect whether and how someone votes, including demographics, campaign strategies, and social milieu. Understanding the dynamics of campaigns, however, is complicated by the fact that researchers cannot observe much of what happens during an election cycle. Typically, studies rely on voter recollections of conversations, contacts, and media exposure. In addition, because data are collected at discrete points in time, most models of voter turnout cannot capture the dynamic nature of an individual’s interactions during a campaign cycle. Agent-based models offer a way to overcome these data limitations by allowing us to model the dynamics of voter turnout over the course of many weeks as individuals move back and forth between home and work environments, interacting with neighbors and colleagues. In this article, the authors present an agent-based model of campaign dynamics, VODYS, and conduct three simulations to demonstrate the utility of agent-based models for exploring the effects of contact and context on political behavior.