Abstract
Various writers have suggested that tourist areas undergo a cycle of evolution ending eventually in decline. This article suggests a five-stage evolutionary sequence appropriate to Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, one of the leading tourist destinations in the United States. Elements of the County's physical and psychological carrying capacity are considered in ascertaining whether Lancaster County will undergo a significant permanent decline in tourist activity. The magnitude of possible future decline is influenced by relative location, diversity of the tourist base, and effectiveness of planning. Diversity and relative location clearly favor Lancaster County in comparison with competing tourist areas and will help to prevent significant long-term decline in number of visitors.
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