Viral invasion, incubation, and outbreak under the normalized operation of urban systems: a spatial cognition-driven transmission model of infectious diseases

Abstract

ABSTRACT Large-scale epidemics, such as COVID-19, pose significant threats to human health and social stability due to their rapid and covert transmission, emerging as one of the main challenges to maintaining a well-functioning urban system. During the pandemic, the spatial transmission mechanisms and their influencing factors of infectious diseases have received as a central topic. Scholars concentrated on researching the phase of extensive dissemination and mandatory intervention, utilizing multiple datasets. However, there remains a notable gap in the investigation of virus spatial transmission mechanisms under normalized urban operations due to limitations in detection timeliness and data collection issues. Moreover, compared to various intervention strategies, the influence of human behavioral dynamics and spatial cognition remains understudied. The paper simulates invasion, incubation, and outbreak of the Omicron variant in Zhuhai City in 2022, validating the results against real-world epidemic data. By comparing spatial diffusion patterns under three levels of spatial cognition, it sheds light on the delayed impact of human spatial cognitive abilities on urban pandemic outbreaks and their influence on virus invasion orders. The simulation model and revealed diffusion mechanisms will provide important guidance for the proactive prevention and control of unpredictable large-scale epidemics in future urban systems.