Viral conductance: Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance ( VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place, the new measure incorporates the fraction of infected nodes at steady state for all possible effective infection strengths. Through examples, we show that VC provides more insight about the robustness of networks than does the epidemic threshold. We also address the paradoxical robustness of Barabási–Albert preferential attachment networks. Even though this class of networks is characterized by a vanishing epidemic threshold, the epidemic requires high effective infection strength to cause a major outbreak. On the contrary, in homogeneous networks the effective infection strength does not need to be very much beyond the epidemic threshold to cause a major outbreak. To overcome computational complexities, we propose a heuristic to compute the VC for large networks with high accuracy. Simulations show that the heuristic gives an accurate approximation of the exact value of the VC. Moreover, we derive upper and lower bounds of the new measure. We also apply the new measure to assess the robustness of different types of network structures, i.e. Watts–Strogatz small world, Barabási–Albert, correlated preferential attachment, Internet AS-level, and social networks. The extensive simulations show that in Watts–Strogatz small world networks, the increase in probability of rewiring decreases the robustness of networks. Additionally, VC confirms that the irregularity in node degrees decreases the robustness of the network. Furthermore, the new measure reveals insights about design and mitigation strategies of infrastructure and social networks.