Violent Crime: Prediction and Control

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Violent crime has become a major public concern, threatening many citizens' sense of well-being and involving tremendous national social and economic costs. The various professions involved in the study, rehabili tation, and control of violent offenders feel increasing public pressure to protect society from crimes of violence, primarily by incapacitating the offender. Decisions to incarcerate or release offenders are often based on in dividual predictions of future violent behavior. Recent public policy con cerning career offenders represents an attempt to protect society by evaluating collective probabilities of future violent behavior. This paper examines the growing concern over violent crime, the prediction techniques that have been used to determine the disposition of an offender, the tendency toward overprediction documented by various research studies, and recent public policies enacted to curb crimes of violence. Finally, balancing individual rights and the rights of society in light of public attitude and public policy involves several moral and ethical questions. 1. President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice, The Challenge of Crime in a Free Society (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govt. Printing Office, 1967), p. 18. 2. "Losing Battle against Crime," U.S. News and World Report, Dec. 15, 1974; "Crime in America: One Nation's Journey into Fright," PTA Magazine, April 1974; "Crime Wave," Time, June 30, 1975. 3. Robert Winslow, ed., Crime in a Free Society, 2d. ed. (Encino, Calif.: Dickenson, 1973), p. 157. 4. James Q. Wilson, Thinking about Crime (New York: Basic Books, 1975), p. 7. 5. Winslow, Crime in a Free Society, p. 156. 6. Ibid., p. 48. 7. James Brooks, "The Fear of Crime in the United States," Crime and Delinquency, July 1974, pp. 242-43. 8. Winslow, Crime in a Free Society, p. 157. 9. Ernst A. Wenk, James O. Robison, and Gerald W. 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Gottfredson, "Assessment of Methods," p. 347. 18. Daniel Glaser, The Effectiveness of a Prison and Parole System (Indianapolis, Ind.: Bobbs- Merrill, 1969). 19. Elmer H. Johnson, Crime, Correction and Society (Homewood, Ill.: Dorsey Press, 1966). 20. Gottfredson, "Assessment of Methods," p. 360. 21. Winslow, Crime in a Free Society, p. 161. 22. John P. Conrad, Crime and Its Prevention (Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1970). 23. Daniel Glaser, "The Efficacy of Alternative Approaches to Parole Prediction," American Sociological Review, June 1955, p. 284. 24. Daniel Glaser, "A Reconsideration of Some Parole Prediction Factors," American Sociological Review, June 1955, p. 335. 25. Wenk et al., "Can Violence Be Predicted?" pp. 395-98. 26. Harry L. Kozol, Richard Boucher, and Ralph Garofalo, "The Diagnosis and Treatment of Dangerousness," Crime and Delinquency, October 1972, pp. 371-92. 27. John Monahan and Lesley Cummings, "Social Implications of the Inability to Predict Violence," Journal of Social Issues, March 1975, p. 153. 28. Ibid., p. 155. 29. Ibid. 30. Ibid., p. 153. 31. Kozol et al., "Diagnosis and Treatment of Dangerousness," p. 373. 32. Monahan and Cummings, "Social Implications of the Inability to Predict Violence," p. 374. 33. Norval Morris, "The Future of Imprisonment: Toward a Punitive Philosophy," Michigan Law Review, May 1974, p. 1162. 34. Ibid., p. 1169. 35. Ibid., pp. 1165-66. 36. Ibid., pp. 1169-70. 37. Wenk et al., "Can Violence Be Predicted?" p. 402. 38. Monahan and Cummings, "Social Implications of the Inability to Predict Violence," pp. 160-61. 39. Sutherland and Cressey, Principles of Criminology, pp. 590-91. 40. John Irwin and Lewis Yablonsky, "The New Criminal: A View of the Contemporary Offender," in Crime in America: Perspectives on Criminal and Delinquent Behavior, Bruce J. Cohen, ed. (Hasco, Ill.: F. E. Peacock, 1970), pp. 199-200. 41. Timothy D. Schellhardt, "Experimental Program Musters Legal Forces against Repeat Offenders to Boost Convictions," Wall Street Journal, Aug. 19, 1976, p. 28. 42. Gresham M. Sykes, Crime & Society (New York: Random House, 1967), p. 194. 43. Schellhardt, "Experimental Program," p. 28.