Abstract
Abstract. Surface water, as the largest part of water resources, plays an important role on China's agricultural production and food security. And surface water is vulnerable to climate change. This paper aims to examine the status of the supply reliability of surface water irrigation, and discusses how it is affected by climate change in rural China. The field data we used in this study was collected from a nine-province field survey during 2012 and 2013. Climate data are offered by China's National Meteorological Information Center which contains temperature and precipitation in the past 30 years. A Tobit model (or censored regression model) was used to estimate the influence of climate change on supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Descriptive results showed that, surface water supply reliability was 74 % in the past 3 years. Econometric results revealed that climate variables significantly influenced the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Specifically, temperature is negatively related with the supply reliability of surface water irrigation; but precipitation positively influences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Besides, climate influence differs by seasons. In a word, this paper improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on agriculture irrigation and water supply reliability in the micro scale, and provides a scientific basis for relevant policy making.
Highlights
Surface water, as the largest part of water resources, plays an important role on China’s agricultural production and food security
With research limitation of this filed, our study focused on the following questions: how much reliable of surface water irrigation supply in rural area in China? Whether climate change influences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation? If yes, how can we quantify this influence? What is the relationship between the supply reliability of surface water irrigation and irrigation infrastructure?
There was a negative correlation between spring precipitation and supply reliability of surface water irrigation
Summary
As the largest part of water resources, plays an important role on China’s agricultural production and food security. Wang: Supply reliability of surface water irrigation in rural China: effects of climate change over China (7.5 % in B1 scenario by 2100, and 9.7 % in A1 scenario). Precipitation and natural runoff decreasing, temperature increasing caused by climate change were helpful to increase the concentration of Ca2+ and Mg2+ in the Yellow River (Xia et al, 2012). Few studies combine irrigation infrastructure and supply reliability of surface water irrigation, let alone under changing climate condition. With research limitation of this filed, our study focused on the following questions: how much reliable of surface water irrigation supply in rural area in China? Econometric analyses, including the influence of climate variables, rural irrigation infrastructures and other factors on the supply reliability of surface water irrigation.
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