Vietnam at The Crossroads in 1990

Abstract

The year 1990 was a difficult and uncertain one for Vietnam. Not so much because problems from within the economy had arisen, but because political events taking place outside Vietnam had a major influence on the direction the economy was heading. Undoubtedly, the most important of these events was the collapse of the Eastern European socialist systems throughout 1989 and 1990. With it came the fear, amongst the Vietnamese leaders at any rate, that the Eastern European reforms might spill over into Vietnam itself. If the experience of Eastern European communist regimes could be taken as a guide, the overthrow of the Vietnamese Communist Party became a possibility. To the Vietnamese leaders, this fear was and continues to be real. This is understandable. After all, there are a number of Eastern European political parallels in terms of successful attempts at economic restructuring without political change. More significantly, this fear on the part of the Vietnamese leadership had led to a dampening of its own version of perestro?ka or economic liberalization. This is most unfortunate, because ultimately the real victim of this shift or seemingly reversal of economic policies is the Vietnamese economy itself.