Abstract
Ferrocement technology has been widely disseminated in Brazil, mainly because it presents construction characteristics that allow great advantages with its use in fish production. The objective of this study was to economically evaluate the farming of Oreochromis niloticus tilapia in circular ferrocement tanks in a fish farm located in the Northeast region of Pará, using the Monte Carlo Method (MCM). The operating cost methodology and economic efficiency indicators were used to evaluate tilapia farming in the analyzed enterprise. Subsequently, a risk analysis using the MCM was carried out using the @RISK software for Excel 8.2.2, with the aim of verifying the success capacity of the enterprise in light of the economic analyzes foreseen for the fish farming under study. The Total Investment found was 158,438.70 BRL, Total Operating Cost (TOC) of 8.29/BRL/kg, the Net Present Value (NPV) of 74,255.15 BRL, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 25 %, Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) at 1.46 and finally, the Capital Return Period (CRP) of 1 year and 7 months. In the risk analysis, the probabilities of obtaining the values predicted in the project for the NPV, IRR, BCR and CRP were 36.3%, 46.2%, 51.7% and 60.7%, respectively. It was concluded that the venture is profitable, and the application of MCM in economic analysis can assist in investor decision-making.
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