Abstract
Power system frequency plays a pivotal role in ensuring the security, adequacy, and integrity of a power system. While some frequency response services are automatically delivered to maintain the frequency within the stipulated limits, certain cases may require that system operators (SOs) manually intervene-against the clock-to take the necessary preventive or corrective actions. As such, SOs can be greatly aided by practical tools that afford them greater temporal leeway. To this end, we propose a methodology to forecast the power system frequency in the subsequent minute. We perform an extensive analysis so as to identify the factors that influence power system frequency. By effectively exploiting the identified factors, we develop a forecasting methodology that harnesses the long short-term memory model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology on Great Britain transmission system frequency data using comparative assessments with selected benchmarks based on various evaluation metrics.
Highlights
A large-scale power system is—for all intents and purposes— a massive and highly complex machine, with generators rotating in steady-state synchronism to supply electricity to meet the system load
4) We investigate the influence of hyperparameters and conduct an analysis of the impact of number of long short-term memory (LSTM) blocks, look-back window, and learning rate on forecasting performance, which serves as a useful guideline for their efficient tuning
In this article, we propose a methodology to forecast the frequency of a power system in the subsequent minute
Summary
A large-scale power system is—for all intents and purposes— a massive and highly complex machine, with generators rotating in steady-state synchronism to supply electricity to meet the system load. The speed of this rotation is referred to as frequency and measured in cycles/second or Hertz (Hz). The frequency of a power system is a key aspect that needs to be monitored to ensure the security of a power system, as large frequency excursions may result in equipment damages. Power system adequacy is defined as the ability of a power system to supply the aggregate electric power and energy requirements at all times [1]. The frequency of a power system has a vital role in power system adequacy, since large frequency excursions may trigger under-frequency or over-frequency relays that automatically interrupt loads and/or require manual load shedding [2]
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