Very short range local area weather forecasting using measurements from geosynchronous meteorological satellites

Abstract

Quantitative radiance measurements from NASA's ATS-3 geosynchronous satellite have been used to develop and test a statistical forecst method to predict air terminal weather over the very short range (0–6 hours) time period. Results from more than 800 hourly weather situations at a wide range of U. S. weather stations show that the parameters of ceiling and total opaque cloud cover can be specified or predicted with skill, exceeding peristence forecasts for time periods greater than two hours. Statistical predictions based on satellite data alone are much better than those based on some 500mb upper air parameters tested. The potential global applications of the satellite data-based forecasts can apparently be improved by the use of certain criteria, such as region of interest, in developing and applying the multiple regression equation. Considering the present status of objective short range weather forecasting, these first results using geosynchronous satellite data demonstrate a new potential for improved forecasts at this scale.