Reply to comment by N. D. Marsh and H. Svensmark on “Solar influences on cosmic rays and cloud formation: A reassessment”

Abstract

[1] Svensmark and Friis-Christensen [1997] (hereinafter referred to as SFC97) proposed a ‘‘galactic cosmic ray (GCR), clouds, and climate’’ hypothesis that cosmic ray flux, modulated by solar activity, may modify global total cloud cover (TCC) and thus global surface temperature by changing the number of ions in the atmosphere and thus the cloud droplet formation. This GCR-TCC hypothesis has been questioned by many authors who examined correlations of GCR with various satellite cloud properties and over different time intervals. We note that the SFC97 hypothesis differs from the one proposed by Marsh and Svensmark [2000] (hereinafter referred to as MS00), who postulated that the GCR influence on cloudiness is restricted to low cloud cover (LCC). [2] All the articles in this debate were based on satellite data and limited to the ocean. By contrast, Sun and Bradley [2002] (hereinafter SB02) combined short-period satellite data (from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP) with long-term visual total cloud observations to reassess the GCR-TCC relationship over the ocean and the land as well. The SB02 study was initialized in early 2000, focusing on the GCR-TCC hypothesis. In the early spring of 2001 we added to our revision several comments regarding the GCR-LCC hypothesis. We concluded in our analysis that there is no solid evidence for the existence of a GCR-cloud correlation (either total cloud or low cloud cover). [3] Marsh and Svensmark [2004] (hereinafter referred to as MS04) raised five comments about our analysis and finally claimed that ‘‘On the basis of satellite observations, there continue to be strong indications of a globally distributed correlation between cosmic rays and low-cloud cover.’’ We will demonstrate in this reply that their comments are either unfounded or illogical. All of their comments are dealt with in section 2, but issues relevant to the GCR-LCC hypothesis will be separately addressed in section 3. New evidence will be present in section 3 to indicate that the quality of the ISCCP infrared (IR) LCC data set, which MS00 and Marsh and Svensmark [2003] (hereinafter referred to as MS03) used to create the GCR-LCC hypothesis, is highly questionable. This reply confirms the view we expressed on the work of SB02 that there is no solid GCR-cloud relationship.