Very High Energy Solar Energetic Particle Events and Ground Level Enhancement Events: Forecasting and Alerts

Abstract

A Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) event can be observed as an increase in the background of ground-based neutron monitor observations and is often associated with an increase of >500 MeV space-based proton flux measurements. GLE events begin as very high-energy SEP events associated with GeV protons. For such events to be detected at sea level, proton energies must exceed about 433 MeV. To mitigate for potential impacts on space systems, avionics and human health, space-based and ground-based monitoring of these particles is essential, and so is having reliable real-time warning systems. Here we present two products, respectively, “GLE alert++” and “HESPERIA UMASEP-500”, that have been fully integrated as federated products on the ESA SWE Portal for this purpose. GLE alert++, built by the Athens Cosmic Ray Group of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, issues alerts when a GLE event has been registered and is based on ground-based neutron monitor observations. From the space-based approach, the EU HORIZON2020 HESPERIA UMASEP-500 product provides forecasts of GLE events and >500 MeV protons relying on GOES satellite soft X-ray and high-energy proton observations. Examples of how these two products complement each other will be given, as well as how using them together can in some instances provide more information for users of these services. (Work performed in the frame of ESA Space Safety Programme’s network of space weather service development and pre-operational activities, and supported under ESA Contract 4000134036/21/D/MRP.)