Real‐time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events

Abstract

AbstractA tool for predicting the occurrence of Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events using the UMASEP scheme is presented. This real‐time tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP‐500, is based on the detection of the magnetic connection, along which protons arrive in the near‐Earth environment, by estimating the lag correlation between the time derivatives of 1 min soft X‐ray flux (SXR) and 1 min near‐Earth proton fluxes observed by the GOES satellites. Unlike current GLE warning systems, this tool can predict GLE events before the detection by any neutron monitor (NM) station. The prediction performance measured for the period from 1986 to 2016 is presented for two consecutive periods, because of their notable difference in performance. For the 2000–2016 period, this prediction tool obtained a probability of detection (POD) of 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30.0%, and average warning times (AWT) of 8 min with respect to the first NM station's alert and 15 min to the GLE Alert Plus's warning. We have tested the model by replacing the GOES proton data with SOHO/EPHIN proton data, and the results are similar in terms of POD, FAR, and AWT for the same period. The paper also presents a comparison with a GLE warning system.