Abstract
To stop pandemic of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), "an 80 percent reduction of person to person contact opportunities" was proposed by the Japanese government. This guideline was based on the result of macroscopic differential equation model akin to the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model. For the purpose of indicating person to person’s infection mechanism intuitively, we built a new model to calculate infections between two persons who are in contact each other. This model adopted a spatial random walk model to express random movement of people in a specific 2-D geographical space. This model was applied to verify the effect of the proposed infection control procedure, "80 percent reduction". The result of the numerical simulation supported a proposed infection control procedure of "an 80 percent reduction" derived by the SIR model.
Highlights
IntroductionSARS-CoV-2 is a SARSr-CoV coronavirus strain that causes the disease COVID-19 (Gorbalenya et al, 2020)
SARS-CoV-2 is a SARSr-CoV coronavirus strain that causes the disease COVID-19 (Gorbalenya et al, 2020). It was first identified in Wuhan area of China in December 2019 (Zhou et al, 2020) and by xx date has since caused a global pandemic of COVID-19
In Japan, the number of infections started to increase from mid-March of 2020, among people returning from overseas and among persons in whom the route of infection was unknown, leading an outbreak of a full-scale epidemic
Summary
SARS-CoV-2 is a SARSr-CoV coronavirus strain that causes the disease COVID-19 (Gorbalenya et al, 2020) It was first identified in Wuhan area of China in December 2019 (Zhou et al, 2020) and by xx date has since caused a global pandemic of COVID-19. On the 7th of April of 2020, a state of emergency was declared in seven prefectures of Japan including the Tokyo metropolitan area (https://corona.go.jp/news/pdf/kinkyujitai_sengen_0407.pdf; in the Home Page of the Japanese Cabinet Secretariat, referenced on 27 April of 2020). Based on news reports (e.g. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000624048.pdf; in the Home Page of the MHLW, referenced on 22 April of 2020), the numerical model was based on the SIR model (Kermack and McKendrick 1927), a classic set of equations that provide a deterministic description of the short-term spread of infection in an epidemic.
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