Abstract
The energy consumption of low-rise residential buildings in South Korea exceeds the targets set in national policies and the standards of other countries. Moreover, there are insufficient policies in place to improve the energy performance of existing low-rise residential buildings and no means to investigate the current status. A standard model enables cost-effective and fast load forecasting and can also be used to establish long-term policies through evaluation of energy saving in buildings before and after the application of energy policies. This study developed a standard model for predicting energy consumption by reflecting the characteristics of low-rise residential buildings in Korea. The standard model was developed based on reliable related standards, national statistical data, and national reports, and the energy variables applied were validated through a sensitivity analysis. Surveys and field measurements were conducted to investigate the energy usage of 70 households in low-rise residential buildings in Korea, and the developed model was validated through comparison with the actual energy usage data. Consequently, the total energy consumption error rate was 12.67% (R2 value: 0.8164), with a significance level higher than 80%, which indicated that the developed model was highly efficient and reliable.
Highlights
According to the Fifth Climate Change Assessment Report of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2014), global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by up to 70% by 2050—compared to the levels in 2010—in order to decrease the global average temperature by 2°C. is is the goal of the Paris Agreement for a new climate regime in preparation for industrialization by the end of the 21st century [1]
In order to develop specific energy variables for our standard model, we considered the standard model provided by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) and the building performance variables of EN ISO 52016. e ASHRAE Standard 90.1 was used to develop a prototype supporting the United States Department of Energy’s Building Energy Codes Program [32, 33], which, in turn, provided standards for 16 building types. e present study aimed to develop input values for a standard model for lowrise residential buildings; the list of variables prescribed for mid-rise apartments was examined
For developing a standard model in the present study, the energy variables were selected from those described in Korean standards, literature, and statistical data based on international standards and dynamic analysis simulation input variables, as shown in Table 2. e input data of each factor were selected and validated through a sensitivity analysis. e variables used in our study belonged to three main categories: architecture, passive, and usage
Summary
According to the Fifth Climate Change Assessment Report of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2014), global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by up to 70% by 2050—compared to the levels in 2010—in order to decrease the global average temperature by 2°C. is is the goal of the Paris Agreement for a new climate regime in preparation for industrialization by the end of the 21st century [1]. Developing a standard model that reflects the characteristics of Korean low-rise buildings and validating it by using reliable national statistics data and actual energy usage data will allow us to evaluate the measures and effects of building energy-saving policies in Korea. It can be used as a reference for establishing energy policy regulations, and the expansion of its application will improve the energy performance of low-rise residential buildings in Korea [27]. The standard model was validated by selecting 70 households from low-rise residential areas in Korea by population sampling, establishing the data values and energy usage of the variables through field measurements and surveys, and investigating energy usage statistics published by public institutions in Korea. While EN ISO 50216 stipulates calculation methods to evaluate energy performance in residential and nonresidential buildings, it is not a
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