Vegetation coverage changes driven by a combination of climate change and human activities in Ethiopia, 2003–2018

Abstract

Climate change often leads to the vulnerability of vegetation cover, while the impact of human activities on vegetation cover is undoubtedly more complex in this context, especially in Ethiopia. This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation growth in Ethiopia from 2003 to 2018 by the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) based on different time scales and explored the coefficient of variation and driving factors of the fractional vegetation coverage (FVC). The results indicated that the EVI mainly presents a “double peak” pattern, with large spatiotemporal differences between quarters and months in Ethiopia. The FVC increased by 0.0005 per year, but vegetation showed a browning trend after 2013. The FVC degraded area accounted for 43.9% of the total area, of which the significantly degraded area accounted for 7.51% due to human activities, mainly in northern, central, and southern Ethiopia. The effects of precipitation and maximum temperature on vegetation differed on time scales. Spatially, the vegetation on the northwest side of the Main Ethiopian Rift Valley (MERV) was dominated by a combination of maximum temperature and precipitation, while vegetation on the southeast side of MERV was mainly influenced by precipitation. However, the spatial overlay analysis with degraded and healthy vegetation zones revealed that human activities were the key driver of vegetation cover change rather than climate change. This study provides support for further development of vegetation health conservation policies in Ethiopia and monitoring of vegetation dynamics in other countries around the world.