Vector-borne disease in South Australia’s future climate

Abstract

Climate change will impact the distribution, seasonality and incidence of mosquito-borne diseases. This is because climate and weather impact the distribution and biology of mosquitoes. There is a large body of literature on vector-borne disease distribution and incidence in a warming climate. However, predictions are commonly made using statistical models that contain assumptions that may not hold true in the future. Ross River virus infection is South Australia’s most common vector-borne disease and the epidemiology of the disease is difficult to model because of the complex interplay between non-human hosts, multiple mosquito vectors, and the human host. Nonetheless some general projections of changes in Ross River virus can be made. Dengue is widespread in the tropics globally and currently, within Australia, restricted to Queensland. The challenges of projecting changes in transmission in future climate scenarios are discussed. I discuss the implications of climate change for diseases already present in and potentially introduced to South Australia.