Abstract
Global warming and environmental changes affect vector species and vector-borne pathogen transmission, presenting significant public health challenges. We developed the Climate-Driven Vector-Borne Disease Risk Assessment platform (VEClim) to support early warning systems and decision support mechanisms, aiding the planning of effective vector control and outbreak management strategies. VEClim employs climate-sensitive structured population modelling, incorporating physiological processes driven by meteorological and environmental factors. A user-friendly web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) delivers a versatile interface to improve accessibility to the models and present short-, medium-, and long-range predictions of habitat suitability, vector activity, and disease risk and impact. The initial release of VEClim presents an in-depth assessment of the seasonal dynamics of Aedes albopictus, also known as the Asian tiger mosquito, and the associated risk of chikungunya virus transmission. This analysis compares three decades, i.e., historical (1980–1990), recent (2010–2020), and future (2090–2100), in terms of seasonal and geospatial averages. The results indicate persistent activity of the vector along the Mediterranean coast and a global northward shift of disease risk due to climate change. The VEClim platform is operationally maintained at The Cyprus Institute and is permanently available via its dedicated domain: veclim.com. VEClim offers environmental datasets, an open-source toolkit for researchers and modellers, and insights for public health officials and decision-makers.
Published Version
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