VARIÁVEIS QUE SUSTENTAM O PERÍODO ATUAL DE PRODUÇÃO DE BIOETANOL DOI:10.5773/rai.v1i1.637

Abstract

The production of bioethanol in Brazil has received a big boost in recent years. The figures show that production jumped from just over 10 billion liters in early 2000s to 27.5 billion liters in 2009. In 1970s, production of bioethanol had a similar impulse, but fell into crisis after 1986. In face of this, questions arose: Might production of bioethanol enter into a crisis similar to that which occurred in Alcohol Program (Proalcool)? What variables that underpin current period of bioethanol production are different from those that supported Alcohol Program? The aim of this paper was to identify variables which, from perspectives of key players in chain of bioethanol production in microregion of Piracicaba-SP, caused crisis of Proalcool, and to see if there are variables that can sustain current growth. The research, which was quantitative, was performed with agents that produce and distribute product. It was found that two variables caused crisis of Alcohol Program: the falling price of oil and little international interest in ethanol. And six variables, i.e. flex-fuel vehicle sales, “agreements to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide to slow global warming that are driving substitution of gasoline for ethanol,” “new technologies such as use of bagasse for production of alcohol and electricity,” “the experience amassed from Alcohol Program,” “legal requirements for adding alcohol to gasoline in many countries” and “international interest in Brazilian ethanol,” which were not present at time of Alcohol Program, are sustaining growth of bioethanol production in Brazil today. Thus, we conclude that, from perspective of those involved with industry, production of ethanol fuel will not slow, as occurred in period of Alcohol Program.