Variations of Terrestrial Net Ecosystem Productivity in China Driven by Climate Change and Human Activity from 2010 to 2020

Abstract

Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) plays an important role in the quantitative evaluation of carbon source/sinks in terrestrial ecosystems. This study used Theil–Sen median trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall method, and the Geodetector model to analyze the variation patterns and its dominant factors of NEP from 2010 to 2020. The results showed the following: (1) During 2010–2020, the spatial distribution of carbon sinks in China’s terrestrial ecosystems showed a pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The area with NEP < 0 accounted for 44.74% of the total area, while the area with NEP > 0 accounted for 55.26%. (2) The northwest region belonged to the significant carbon source, while the other regions belonged to significant carbon sinks. (3) The annual average NEP in different sub-regions showed an increasing trend. During 2010–2020, the overall NEP in China showed a trend in shifting from low-level to high-level, indicating that the NEP of terrestrial ecosystems in China increased during the past 11 years. (4) The NEP gravity center in Northeast China showed a trend in moving southward and then northward, while that of the NEP gravity center in East China showed a circular migration trend of ‘northwest-southwest–northeast–southeast’. The gravity center of NEP in Northwest China was moving northeastward. The migration trajectory of the NEP gravity center in Southwest China presented a “Z” shape. The change in the gravity center of NEP in the central and southern regions had a strong circuitous nature, and the overall trend was to migrate southward. (5) The combined actions of climate change and human activities were the main reason for the change in NEP in China’s terrestrial ecosystem from 2010 to 2020. (6) There were obvious differences in the dominant driving factors of NEP evolution in different regions and different periods in the past 40 years.