Abstract
Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important food and industrial production area and a frequently drought-affected basin in eastern China. It is necessary to consider the future drought development for reducing the impact of drought disasters. Three global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had) and MIROC5 (MIR), were used to assessment the future drought conditions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), statistical method, Mann-Kendall test, and run theory were carried out to study the variations of drought tendency, frequency, and characteristics and their responses to climate change. The research showed that the three CMIP5 models differ in describing the future seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature in the basin and thus lead to the differences in describing drought trends, frequency, and drought characteristics, such as drought severity, drought duration, and drought intensity. However, the drought trend, frequency, and characteristics in the future are more serious than the history. The drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under the scenario of high concentration of RCP8.5, and the drought trend is larger than that of low concentration of RCP4.5. The lower precipitation and the higher temperature are the main factors affecting the occurrence of drought. All three CMIP5 models show that precipitation would increase in the future, but it could not offset the evapotranspiration loss caused by significant temperature rise. The serious risk of drought in the future is still higher. Considering the uncertainty of climate models for simulation and prediction, attention should be paid to distinguish the effects of different models in the future drought assessment.
Highlights
Drought is recognized as a natural hazard and environmental disaster and it has caused extensive impact during recent decades over the worldwide [1,2], such as the North America [3,4], Europe [5,6], Australia [7], Africa [8,9], and the Asia [10,11,12]
The average annual precipitation in UMHRB is about 902 mm, and its average annual precipitation in UMHRB is about 902 mm, and its distribution is decreasing from south mountainousareas areas more than plains distribution is decreasing from southtotonorth, north, with with mountainous more than plains and and with with coastal areasareas more than inland areas
The future potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 2020 to 2099 were calculated by Thornthwaite [51] equation because the mean temperature was given by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, but some variables needed in the Penman-Monteith were lacking
Summary
Drought is recognized as a natural hazard and environmental disaster and it has caused extensive impact during recent decades over the worldwide [1,2], such as the North America [3,4], Europe [5,6], Australia [7], Africa [8,9], and the Asia [10,11,12]. Water 2019, 11, 2174 coupled with water evaporation, and water consumption expenditure Drought affects both surface and underground water resources and can lead to reduced water supply, water storage of water conservancy projects, social and economic water use, and ecological environment water use [13]. Especially in the face of increasing population, agricultural expansion, and industrial and economic development, other aspects of water demand continue to increase, drought will have an important impact on all these aspects [9]. Drought needs to arouse extensive attention by the human society
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