Variations in the Ice Phenology and Water Level of Ayakekumu Lake, Tibetan Plateau, Derived from MODIS and Satellite Altimetry Data

Abstract

The alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are highly sensitive to variations in climate changes, and the lake ice phenology and water level are considered to be direct indicators of regional climate variability. In this study, we first used 14 years of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer snow cover products to analyse the freeze dates, ablation dates, and ice coverage durations. The lake level changes during 2002–2015 were estimated, derived from satellite altimetry and Hydroweb data. Unexpectedly, the freeze dates of lake ice greatly advanced, and the ablation dates were markedly delayed. The complete freezing duration lengthened by approximately 77 days. As a result of the warm-wet climate in the northern TP, the lake area expanded from 770 to 995 km2 during 2002–2015, and the water levels rose by 4.2 m in total, at a rate of 0.3 m/year. The progressive expansion of Ayakekumu Lake profoundly affected the ice phenology. Larger water volume with larger thermal capacity likely led to the delaying of ablation dates, with the freezing point depression caused by decreasing salinity. Some new narrow and shallow bays located in southern and eastern Ayakekumu Lake were conducive to early freezing of ice. Additionally, the changes in air temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation, and sunshine duration may be related to the prolonged ice cover duration since 2002. In sum, accurate measurements of lake ice and water levels are critical for understanding the water resource balance and hydrologic cycle in arid or semi-arid regions of China.