Variation characteristics and the impact of urbanization of extreme precipitation in Shanghai

Abstract

With the rapid development of urbanization, the characteristics of extreme precipitation in urban areas have changed significantly. Revealing the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation under changing environment is the basis of scientific response to the urban flood. Trends of extreme precipitation at 95% and 99% thresholds in Shanghai and the influence of urbanization on them were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The precipitation threshold limit value for each site are 5.7 ~ 6.3 mm at 95% with a variation factor of 0.04, and 14.3 ~ 17.16 mm at 99% with a variation factor of 0.06. The precipitation thresholds under 99% conditions were more significantly different among stations. (2) The extreme precipitation at each site has been increasing over the past 50 years, and the growth rates of 95% and 99% extreme precipitation are 8.02~11.46%/10a and 7.11~16.86%/10a, respectively. The growth rate of extreme precipitation is significantly higher than that of average precipitation, while the extreme part of the precipitation probability distribution increases considerably. There is a strong variability in extreme precipitation in this region, while the 99% threshold precipitation varies more. (3) The extreme precipitation in Shanghai is significantly positively correlated with the urbanization of the area around the site. Urbanization has an increasing effect on regional extreme precipitation, with more extreme precipitation and greater growth rate in highly urbanized areas.