Variable fuzzy evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in the Tarim River Basin, China

Abstract

Abstract As one of the regions of China with the most serious water-shortages, the shortage of water resources and ecological deterioration of the Tarim River Basin have increasingly attracted attention, and management and sustainable utilization of water resources rely mostly on the understanding of their carrying capacity. In the present study, the water resources carrying capacity of the Tarim River Basin was evaluated using a multi-dimensional perspective of natural, social and economic factors based on a variable fuzzy evaluation model for the 2018 hydroclimatic conditions. Evaluation model results rated Aksu, Kizilsu, Kashi and Hotan districts as grade 2, where current use and overexploitation of water resources have reached a relatively high level combined with a limited water resources carrying capacity. Bazhou district, where the water resources carrying capacity is relatively higher, was evaluated and rated as grade 1 by the model. It is urgent to put forward some strategies in order to protect and improve the water resources carrying capacity in the Tarim River Basin, which include promoting more efficient utilization of water conservation schemes, strengthening the long-term investment in environmental protection, improving the ratio of industrial wastewater treatment and reducing the industrial water quota. The results of the present study are aimed to be a beneficial guide in the planning and management of the Tarim River Basin water resources and possibly for other similar river basins.