Abstract
In addition to the social economy and the rapid development of industry and agriculture, water demand is increasing and poses challenges in the over-exploitation of water resources. This research establishes a model to assess the sustainable exploitation of water resources based on system dynamics theory and STELLA software, which solves the imbalanced allocation of industrial water, agricultural water and domestic water. The model is composed of two parts: the water quantity system (including economy, population, water availability and water demand) and the water quality system (composed of the aquatic environment), which is suitable for Chengde City with a water resource shortage. The proposed model is established by data of Chengde City from 2007 to 2016 and is verified by 2017 data. Furthermore, in order to compare the water quality and water utilization of Chengde City under different development scenarios up to 2025, the sensitivity analysis of each variable (e.g., population) is carried out in this model, and thereby the water resource utilization scenarios are acquired. Specifically, four scenarios are designed and denoted: Scenario 1: keeping the status quo unchanged, Scenario 2: slowing down economic development and devoting more energy to environmental protection, Scenario 3: only focusing more on economic development and Scenario 4: aiming at steady and rapid economic growth and an eco-friendly environment. The results shows that Scenarios 2 and 3 facilitate high-effective water resource utilization compared with the current development, Scenario 1. Scenario 4 fosters the balance of water resources supply–demand in the future and preserves the water quality. This study provides an inspiring method for realizing the sustainable utilization and optimizing allocation of water resources in Chengde City.
Highlights
Water is crucial for human societal survival and development
The model is calibrated on the basis of the data for water supply reported in Chengde Water Resources Bulletin from 2011 to 2014, and the relative error is evaluated
This paper establishes a model for the sustainable use of water resources and considers in detail the effects of population, economy, water quality and quantity on water use in Chengde to achieve an efficient allocation of water resources in this city
Summary
Water is crucial for human societal survival and development. Rapid economic growth has resulted in increasingly prominent water resource challenges. Xu et al adopted a systems dynamics method based on an object-oriented system to expand a water resource system model in the Yellow River Basin and evaluated the sustainability of the water resources system in the study area [5]. Srijana and Sajjad adopted the system dynamics model to study the influence of climate condition change and population growth on water resources in the semi-arid area of southern Nevada, which promoted the sustainable advancement of water resources through combining pricing policies and water saving [6]. S.S. Dai et al established a system dynamics model based on an object-oriented system to simulate the decision-making process of water resource exploration, capturing the relationship between water resource availability and the water demand evoked by industrial, agricultural production and population growth [9]. Complex feedback-based dynamic processes can be modeled in space and time [10]
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