Simulation study of the sustainable utilization of urban water resources based on system dynamics: a case study of Jiamusi

Abstract

To achieve sustainable utilization of urban water resources and sustainable social and economic development and to relieve the supply–demand pressure related to water resources in Jiamusi, a simulation model based on system dynamics theory is established to identify the feedback mechanism and the causal relationship among the factors affecting the sustainable utilization of water resources. The conditions regarding the utilization of water resources in Jiamusi in 2010 are taken as the benchmark for the model, and the supply–demand structure of urban water resources and the geographical characteristics of the region are used as the basis for its establishment. The model is divided into five subsystems described by 64 variables to simulate the supply–demand structure of the water resources in the region, as well as both the individual supply and demand structures, and thus to obtain the supply–demand conditions and the trends of variation in water resources in the short, medium and long terms. The results show that seriously unbalanced supply–demand conditions for water resources will prevail in Jiamusi in the future. By 2030, the supply–demand ratio will be only 0.5987; the level of development and utilization of surface water resources and transit water resources will be relatively low, and the groundwater resources will still be suffering excessive exploitation; the industrial water demand will be greatly increased, and agricultural development will be restricted. With a focus on the problems that may arise in the utilization of water resources at present and in the future, a proposal regarding the realization of the sustainable utilization of water resources and sustainable social and economic development in Jiamusi is presented. The outcomes of this research have important theoretical and practical significance for providing guidance regarding the scientific and reasonable utilization of water resources in Jiamusi.