Variability of the Barents-Kara Sea Sea Ice Area and its Correlation with Atlantic Water Recirculation through the Barents Sea Opening

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the interannual variability of the sea ice area (SIA) in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) region. We explore the contributing factors to this variability, primarily focusing on oceanic influences evident in the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). The BSO, characterized by eastward warm Atlantic Water (AW) inflow, plays a crucial role in shaping the BKS SIA. While the inflow has been extensively studied, the westward-directed outflow known as Bear Island Slope Current (BISC), remains insufficiently observed. Being fed by relatively warm recirculating modified AW (mAW), the BISCs impact on the overall ocean heat transport (OHT) variability is uncertain.   Utilizing the global Finite Volume Sea Ice and Ocean Model (FESOM2.1), we derive estimates of the interannual volume transport and temperature variability of the BISC, filling the observational gap. We find that whereas the variability of BSO inflow/BISC volume transport is similar in magnitude, the temperature variability of the BISC exceeds the BSO inflow temperature variability. By linking the simulated BISC variability to BKS SIA, our findings reveal a yet unknown, strong co-variation between the volume transport of the BISC and the BKS SIA at the end of the freezing season, with a short lead time of zero to three months. We thus further examine the role of the BISC in generating interannual anomalies in the BKS SIA. Our model simulations illustrate that the volume transport of the BISC can be modified by the emergence of a secondary mAW recirculation downstream the northern AW path through the BS in the months preceding anomalously large BKS SIA. This secondary mAW recirculation is thereby increasing the volume transport of mAW leaving the BS via the BISC, reducing the amount of AW reaching the northern Barents Sea ice edge downstream. Additionally, we identify a connection between the atmospheric forcing pattern associated with the volume transport variability of the BISC and anomalous sea ice advection into the BKS as a second cause for the BISC volume transport/BKS SIA co-variability. In general, our study emphasizes the co-variability between BKS SIA and the BISC. We highlight the role of the mAW recirculations in altering the amount of AW, and consequently ocean heat, reaching the ice edge in the northwestern Barents Sea.