Abstract
This paper discusses results of a simulation with the regional climate model HIRHAM for 1958-2001, driven by the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA40) data over the Arctic domain. The aim is to analyze the ability of the model to capture certain features of climate extremes derived from daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. For this purpose, a range of climate indices (frost days, cold and warm spell days, growing degree days and growing season length) was calculated from the model output as well as from ERA40 data and region-specific station data for Eastern and Western Russian Arctic for comparison. It is demonstrated that the model captures the main features in the spatial distribution and temporal development of most indices well. Though systematic deviations in the seasonal means occur in various indices (frost days, growing degree days), variability and trends are well reproduced. Seasonal mean patterns in frost days are reproduced best, though the model persistently calculates too many frost days. Seasonal means of cold and warm spell days are reproduced without systematic biases, though deviations occur in summer for cold spells and in spring and summer for warm spells due to an early spring warming in the regional climate model and a low variability of the daily maximum temperature over sea ice.
Highlights
The change in climate extremes is an important aspect of global warming, as it effects the live of people in form of heat waves or changes in the growing season length very directly
In comparison with ERA40, the pattern correlation coefficients are high for both seasons, showing that the spatial distribution of frost days is well reproduced by the model
Several climate indices based on daily temperature data as calculated by the RCM HIRHAM are analyzed concerning the ability of the model to reproduce the observed patterns
Summary
The change in climate extremes is an important aspect of global warming, as it effects the live of people in form of heat waves or changes in the growing season length very directly. Recent analysis of extremes from observations using climate indices like frost days for the Arctic have shown high variability and warming trends for specific areas in the Arctic regions. To estimate possible future changes in climate extremes, it is necessary to apply climate models that are able to reproduce the "present-day" extremes. In this context, the magnitude and trend of extremes and their variability is of importance. We present data from the regional climate model HIRHAM, applied over the pan Arctic domain for present day. We aim at demonstrating the ability of the model to reproduce spatial patterns as well as temporal development and variability of the chosen climate indices.
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