Abstract
Introduction:Changes in climate have impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Most countries, including the UAE, are expected to experience a huge impact of climate change, due to the undergoing rapid growth and huge urban developments.Materials & Methods:Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs, represent the latest generation of scenarios that are used as potential inputs into climate models to show imposed greenhouse-gas concentration pathways during the 21stcentury. Four emission scenarios have been used for climate research; namely RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 6 and RCP 8.5. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are used. The aims of this study are to assess different RCPs and their appropriateness to predict temperatures and rainfall and to study the effect of climate change on three different cities in the UAE.Results & Conclusion:The results show a strong correlation between the present TmaxvsTmax 2020, Tmax 2040, Tmax 2060, Tmax 2080 and Tmax 2095 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. This means that maximum temperatures are going to increase in the coming years based on the predictions according to the different scenarios using MarksimGCMR.Precipitation projections shows greater variation than temperature. In this paper the amount of increase in temperatures and precipitation change is shown for the end of the current century.
Highlights
Changes in climate have impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans
Results & Conclusion: The results show a strong correlation between the present Tmax vs Tmax 2020, Tmax 2040, Tmax 2060, Tmax 2080 and Tmax 2095 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
This means that maximum temperatures are going to increase in the coming years based on the predictions according to the different scenarios using MarksimGCMR
Summary
Changes in climate have impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. GCMs are numerical models predicting atmospheric physical processes, ocean dynamics and land surface processes, while presenting the most advanced predictive tools available to simulate the impact of increased greenhouse gas levels on the global climate system [4]. Relying on such models, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the last three decades were consistently warmer than any preceding decade since 1850 [1]. Some lowlying regions and islands are required to confront high impacts that could have a cost as much as several percent points GDP [1] This recent impact of climate change may have far reaching negative impacts.
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