Abstract
ObjectivesTo investigate whether a value of information analysis, commonly applied in health care evaluations, is feasible and meaningful in the field of crime prevention.MethodsInterventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency are increasingly being evaluated according to their cost-effectiveness. Results of cost-effectiveness models are subject to uncertainty in their cost and effect estimates. Further research can reduce that parameter uncertainty. The value of such further research can be estimated using a value of information analysis, as illustrated in the current study. We built upon an earlier published cost-effectiveness model that demonstrated the comparison of two interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency. Outcomes were presented as costs per criminal activity free year.ResultsAt a societal willingness-to-pay of €71,700 per criminal activity free year, further research to eliminate parameter uncertainty was valued at €176 million. Therefore, in this illustrative analysis, the value of information analysis determined that society should be willing to spend a maximum of €176 million in reducing decision uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of the two interventions. Moreover, the results suggest that reducing uncertainty in some specific model parameters might be more valuable than in others.ConclusionsUsing a value of information framework to assess the value of conducting further research in the field of crime prevention proved to be feasible. The results were meaningful and can be interpreted according to health care evaluation studies. This analysis can be helpful in justifying additional research funds to further inform the reimbursement decision in regard to interventions for juvenile delinquents.
Highlights
In order to guide policy decisions, it would be helpful to know the cost-effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency
At a societal willingness-to-pay of €71,700 per criminal activity free year, further research to eliminate parameter uncertainty was valued at €176 million. In this illustrative analysis, the value of information analysis determined that society should be willing to spend a maximum of €176 million in reducing decision uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of the two interventions
The data used in this study was not retrieved from the Viersprong Institute for Studies on Personality Disorders (VISPD) as this institution was not included in the multicentre study
Summary
In order to guide policy decisions, it would be helpful to know the cost-effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency. Cost-effectiveness analyses have informed an increasing number of reimbursement decisions in mental health-care [1,2]. The decision whether or not to reimburse an intervention is marked by uncertainty. When a decision to reimburse an intervention turns out to be incorrect, it could lead to suboptimal interventions being approved. These interventions create costs in terms of foregone benefits and resources [11,12,13,14,15]. Further research may eliminate this uncertainty and optimize the reimbursement decision
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