Value-based estimate of market size and opportunity for economic benefit through innovative pancreatic cancer (PC) therapies.

Abstract

e16790 Background: Over the past 20 years, cancer drugs have contributed to increased life expectancy, reduced mortality, decreased hospitalization and decreased use of medical services. The economic value of these improvements is about as large as the value of the increase in the US gross domestic product during that time period. Recently, a health economic study presented at ASCO GI 2020 cited that every $1 (adjusted for inflation) spent on innovative PC treatments reduced non-drug expenditures by $9, thereby lowering the total cost of care for PC patients. Accordingly, the commercial opportunity of a new therapy should be measured by some combination of the clinical, economic and social value generated. We demonstrate the value of a novel PC drug from this perspective. Methods: Analysis of SEER survival and incidence data between 2008 and 2016 shows the introduction of new medicines for PC of all stages was associated with a cumulative increase of 26,456 life years, or 2.52 life years per patient. It was also associated with quality of life improvements, measured by a decline in hospitalizations rates and emergency room visits that can also lead to more days at work, at school and with family. Several studies have suggested the average value of an additional year of life, for the age of a typical patient diagnosed with PC, is at least $250,000. Using this figure, the value of 26,456 life years gained from 2008-2016 is $6.61 billion (26,456*$250,000) to patients, the healthcare system and society, as a result of advancing medical innovation for patients with PC. Results: The median annual list price of a life-enhancing cancer therapy is $150,000 per patient. Using the NCI treatment prevalence estimator (holding incidence constant), we estimate that between 2020-2025, there will be an additional 10,728 advanced PC patients requiring treatment who could benefit from innovative drugs. The total cost of these drugs for these patients would be $1.61 billion. However, the economic value of the life years saved would be $6.76 billion (10,728*2.52 life years*$250,000 = $6.76 billion). A review of cancer medicine payor coverage suggests a new PC therapy that produces such value would be able to obtain coverage from US payors given this value-based price. Conclusions: A value-based approach to estimating the opportunity for clinical and economic benefit reveals significant potential for new PC medicines.