Validation of physics-based ground shaking scenarios for empirical fragility studies: the case of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake

Abstract

This paper explores and validates the use of ground shaking scenarios generated via 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBS) for seismic fragility studies. The 2009 L’Aquila seismic event is selected as case-study application, given the availability of a comprehensive post-earthquake database, gathering observed seismic damages detected on several building typologies representative of the Italian built environment, and of a validated numerical model for the PBS of ground shaking scenarios. Empirical fragility curves are derived as a function of different seismic intensity measures, by taking advantage of an improved statistical technique, overcoming possible uncertainties in the resulting estimates entailed by data aggregation. PBS-based fragility functions are compared to the corresponding sets of curves relying on updated ShakeMaps. The predictive capability of the adopted simulation strategies is then verified in terms of seismic damage scenarios, by respectively coupling PBS- and ShakeMap-based fragility models with the corresponding ground shaking scenarios. Comparison of observed and predicted damage distributions highlights the suitability of PBS for region-specific seismic vulnerability and risk applications.