Validation of E-PRE-DELIRIC in cardiac surgical ICU delirium: A retrospective cohort study.

Abstract

The early prediction model for delirium in intensive care units (ICUs)-E-PRE-DELIRIC-has been created to predict delirium development during the length of stay in ICUs. However, there have been few early predictive models for delirium in the cardiac surgical ICU (CSICU), and the predictive ability of the E-PRE-DELIRIC among patients following cardiac surgeries is still unknown. To validate the performance of E-PRE-DELIRIC in CSICU. A retrospective cohort study. Data were retrospectively extracted from the electronic records for patients admitted in CSICU from January 2018 to December 2018 in a tertiary teaching hospital in China. Adult patients were included following the criteria of the E-PRE-DELIRIC model. Predictors, including age, history of cognitive impairment, history of alcohol abuse, urgent admission, use of corticosteroids, respiratory failure, blood urea nitrogen, and mean arterial pressure, at the time of ICU admission were retrieved, and delirium was assessed twice a day using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU. The performance of the E-PRE-DELIRIC model was evaluated by area under receiver operator characteristic curve, precision-recall curve (AUPRC), Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, and calibration belt. Of the 725 patients included, 120 (16.6%) developed delirium. The AUROC was 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48-0.59), and the AUPRC was 0.18 (95% CI, 0.12-0.20). The HL test showed a significant difference between predicted probability and delirium occurrence (χ2 = 17.326, P = .027), and the overestimation chance of the E-PRE-DELIRIC score was 0.24 to 0.43. The E-PRE-DELIRIC model has poor-to-fair predictive value in this study; thus, its application among the CSICU patients is limited. Development of reliable and validated tools for early prediction of delirium in CSICU is required. Early prediction of delirium risk at CSICU admission is of vital importance and could provide timely information to caregivers. However, the E-PRE-DELIRIC model should be applied cautiously in the CSICU because of the significant probability of over-estimating the risk of developing delirium.