Abstract
The proton prediction system (PPS) is a program developed at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to predict solar energetic ( E > 5 MeV ) proton (SEP) intensities at 1 AU following solar flares. It is based on average observed SEP intensity-time profiles, peak intensities, and event durations. The input parameters are solar flare peak or time-integrated X-ray or radio fluxes and their times of onsets and maxima, and solar flare locations. We do a limited validation of the PPS using 78 GOES solar X-ray flares of peak intensity ⩾ M 5 with well associated H α flare locations. Predicted peak proton intensities J ( E > 10 MeV ) and event onset and rise times are compared with SEP events observed by GOES. We also select all GOES E > 10 MeV SEP events above 10 proton flux units (pfu) during the same time period to compare with those predicted by the PPS. With our M5 X-ray flare threshold the PPS yields approximately equal numbers of correct predictions, false predictions, and missed 10-pfu SEP events.
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