Validating the Applicability of Bayesian Inference with Surname and Geocoding to Congressional Redistricting

Abstract

AbstractEnsuring descriptive representation of racial minorities without packing minorities too heavily into districts is a perpetual difficulty, especially in states lacking voter file race data. One advance since the 2010 redistricting cycle is the advent of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), which greatly improves upon previous ecological inference methods in identifying voter race. In this article, we test the viability of employing BISG to redistricting under two posterior allocation methods for race assignment: plurality versus probabilistic. We validate these methods through 10,000 redistricting simulations of North Carolina and Georgia’s congressional districts and compare BISG estimates to actual voter file racial data. We find that probabilistic summing of the BISG posteriors significantly reduces error rates at the precinct and district level relative to plurality racial assignment, and therefore should be the preferred method when using BISG for redistricting. Our results suggest that BISG can aid in the construction of majority-minority districts during the redistricting process.