Vaccination Strategies based on a Mathematical Model of Epidemics Considering the Age Structure of the Population

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to promote the skills needed for analyzing the disease course, including determining the relevance of vaccinations, especially among people who are unfamiliar with computer programming. This paper describes the basic epidemiological model (SIR), its extensions that allow vaccinations, and the emergence of renewed waves of disease growth. It also discusses a literature model, extended SEIRD, which includes a more detailed division of the population into susceptible, latent, symptomatic, and asymptomatic infected, recovered, and dead in eight age groups. Modifying the SEIRD model as shown on the basic SIR model, we analyzed five vaccination strategies, considering the limited vaccine supply, the number of vaccinations performed per day, and their effectiveness. The analysis was performed for a group of one million people, using the parameters of the model characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic and Sweden's generational structure. We analyzed in terms of reducing both the number of deaths and the incidence of symptomatic infections, which represent the main burden of healthcare.