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Abstract
Background: Debate persists around the risk-benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against Covid-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups.Methods: We developed a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the Covid-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example.Results: The base case model demonstrates significant increases in Covid-19 disease burden in the UK following relaxation of restrictions from 19 July 2021, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). This vaccination strategy would result in approximately 60% of new infections being in those Conclusions: This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent Covid-19 morbidity and mortality across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy.Funding: Funding for this study was provided by Moderna, Inc.Declaration of Interest: TS, ARM and PM are employees of Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff, UK. Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd received fees from Moderna in relation to this study. MM is an employee of Moderna, Inc. CAT and POB are employees of Moderna, Inc. and hold Moderna stocks/stock options. ME and WDS have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Highlights
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has resulted in more than 193 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 4 million deaths globally, as of 26 July 2021 [1]
More than 100 experts signed an open letter to the UK government suggesting that ending the pandemic requires enough of the population to be immune to prevent exponential growth of the virus, and population immunity is unlikely to be achieved without much higher levels of vaccination across all age-groups, and to include adolescents and children [13]
If the vaccination schedule could be further extended to children ≥5 years, this benefit would be expanded to a 60% reduction in hospitalizations, a 57% reduction in mortality, and a 75% reduction in cases of long COVID
Summary
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has resulted in more than 193 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 4 million deaths globally, as of 26 July 2021 [1]. It has been estimated that at least one in five people infected with COVID-19 experience persistent ill health following the acute phase of infection. This condition is typically referred to as long COVID; it includes both ongoing symptomatic COVID-19, with signs and symptoms continuing for 4 to 12 weeks after acute COVID-19, as well as post-COVID-19 syndrome, with signs and symptoms that develop during or after acute COVID-19 continuing for more than 12 weeks, and which cannot be explained by an alternative diagnosis [2]. In the UK, vaccination of those over the age of 12 years is, as of 30 July 2021, limited to vulnerable individuals and those in households with immunocompromised members; mass vaccination of children and adolescents is not currently planned [3]
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