Abstract
Based on the diversity of the agricultural system, this research calculates the planting structures of rice, maize and soybean considering the optimal eco- nomic-social-ecological aspects. Then, based on the uncertainty and randomness of the water resources system, the interval two-stage stochastic programming method, which introduces the uncertainty of the interval number, is used to calculate the groundwater exploitation and the use efficiency of surface water. The method considers the minimum cost of water as the objective of the uncertainty model for surface water and groundwater joint scheduling optimization for different planting structures. Finally, by calculating harmonious entropy, the optimal exploitation utilization interval of surface water and groundwater is determined for optimal cultivation in the Sanjiang Plain. The optimal matching of the planting structure under the economic system is suitable when the mining ratio of the surface is in 44.13%-45.45% and the exploitation utilization of groundwater is in 54.82%-66.86%, the optimal planting structure under the social system is suitable when surface water mining ratio is in 47.84%- 48.04% and the groundwater exploitation threshold is in 67.07%-72.00%. This article optimizes the economic- social-ecological-water system, which is important for the development of a water- and food-conserving society and providing a more accurate management environment.
Highlights
As an agricultural country, in China, more than 70% of the total water used is for agriculture[1]
According to the characteristics of the Sanjiang Plain and the related system principle of determining the parameters, the output of the three crops is chosen as the order parameter of the economic system, per capita gain is chosen as the parameter for the social system, the per capita ecological service value is chosen as the ecological order parameter, and the extraction threshold of groundwater and surface water utilization are chosen for the water resources system parameters
A two-stage uncertainty interval stochastic programming model was applied for the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources in the Sanjiang Plain
Summary
In China, more than 70% of the total water used is for agriculture[1]. Because the level of agricultural water use and unit cost are uncertain, and the water resources management system is an uncertain complex system, an uncertainty optimization method is suitable for solving the uncertainty factors for such a system. This study considers the economic-social-ecological and water resources system using a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming model with intervals and agricultural water system entropy considerations to analyses the surface water and groundwater exploitation ratio for the Sanjiang Plain to overcome the complexity and uncertainty of the agricultural water resources system and to obtain an optimization solution and use ratio threshold of surface water and groundwater in agriculture. The optimal scheme is obtained by the comparison of the different solutions through the harmonious entropy Using this approach, a new method for optimizing the allocation of water resources is proposed
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