Abstract
This study proposes and demonstrates a probabilistic approach to simulating low-voltage (LV) networks, which can incorporate flexibility in (future) household load. This method provides insight in probabilities of power flows and voltage magnitudes occurring, and can therefore predict chances of overloading cables and violating voltage limits. Compared with the current planning method (worst case approach) for LV networks, this allows for a more accurate estimation of risk levels when designing the network. Incorporation of user activated flexibility can influence the probability of power flows or voltage magnitudes occurring, but cannot reliably prevent violating limits altogether.
Highlights
Increasing numbers of major electricity consuming appliances in households, such as heat pumps (HPs) and electric vehicles (EVs), cause the peak in electricity use to rise
In addition to that, increasing photovoltaic (PV) power production may cause a peak in opposite direction at another moment in time. These new appliances bring with them an uncertainty to the future load development of the electricity grid for distribution system operators (DSOs)
As current planning is done for 30 years into the future, this method might still be effective, even if large-scale penetration of new appliances occurs
Summary
Increasing numbers of major electricity consuming appliances in households, such as heat pumps (HPs) and electric vehicles (EVs), cause the peak in electricity use to rise. In addition to that, increasing photovoltaic (PV) power production may cause a peak in opposite direction (electricity supply) at another moment in time. These new appliances bring with them an uncertainty to the future load development of the electricity grid for distribution system operators (DSOs). The current planning approach is not adequate to properly take DSM into account as network planning options for the LV grid. Nor can it consider the stochastic nature of decentralised generation
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