Abstract
The funds management industry provides numerous financial products to help investors accumulate wealth in preparation for their retirement. Typically financial products such as balanced funds and lifecycle funds have been the most popular. Recently because of the two major bear markets from 2000 to 2010 there has been considerable interest in developing investment strategies that focus on risk rather than returns. In this paper we propose a glide path value at risk (VaR) approach that takes into account the time variation of risk and return. We show that the glide path VaR approach outperforms the terminal value of a 60/40 balanced fund by up to 35%. Furthermore, we propose that lifecycle funds should not be “age based” but should be “risk based”.
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