Abstract
Background: Inadequate retirement savings is an international challenge. Additionally, individuals are not cognisant of how asset allocation choices ultimately impact retirement savings. Life cycle and balanced funds are popular asset allocation strategies to save towards retirement. However, recent research is questioning the efficacy of life cycle funds that switch to lower risk asset classes as retirement approaches.Aim: The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of life cycle funds with balanced funds to determine whether either dominates the other. The study compares balanced and life cycle funds with similar starting asset allocations as well as those where the starting asset allocations differ.Setting: The study has a South African focus and constructs funds using historical data for the main local asset classes; that is, equity, fixed income and cash, as well as a proxy for foreign equity covering the period 1986–2013.Method: The study makes use of Monte Carlo simulations and bootstrap with replacement, and compares the simulated outcomes using stochastic dominance as decision-making criteria.Results: The results indicate that life cycle funds fail to dominate balanced funds by first-order or almost stochastic dominance when funds have a similar starting asset allocation. It is noteworthy that there are instances where the opposite is true, that is, balanced funds dominate life cycle funds. These results highlight that while the life cycle funds provide more downside protection, they significantly suppress the upside potential compared to balanced funds. When the starting asset allocations of the balanced and life cycle funds differ, the stochastic dominance results are inconsistent as to the efficacy of the life cycle fund strategies considered.Conclusion: The study shows that whether one fund is likely to dominate the other is strongly dependent on the underlying asset allocation strategies of the funds. Additionally, the length of the glide path and the risk and return characteristics of the investable universe are also likely to influence the findings.
Highlights
The potential inadequacy of accumulated retirement wealth is a global dilemma
Despite 5 143 retirement funds registered in South Africa which covers approximately 16 million members in 2015, it is estimated that only 6% to 10% of South Africans are saving sufficiently for retirement (Financial Services Board 2015a; Jones 2011; Old Mutual in Kemp 2005)
The retirement funds in South Africa are predominantly defined contribution pension funds, which have significant implications for members who must participate in the investment decision-making process and who end up bearing the investment risks related to these decisions (Financial Services Board 2015a, 2015b; Levitan and Merton 2015)
Summary
The potential inadequacy of accumulated retirement wealth is a global dilemma. The National Institute on Retirement Savings (2013) estimates that, should one consider formal retirement savings of households only, 92% of American households will fall short of their retirement targets while the Department for Work and Pensions (2012) estimates that 38% of the United Kingdom’s workforce will not be adequately prepared for retirement.Despite 5 143 retirement funds registered in South Africa which covers approximately 16 million members in 2015, it is estimated that only 6% to 10% of South Africans are saving sufficiently for retirement (Financial Services Board 2015a; Jones 2011; Old Mutual in Kemp 2005). The retirement funds in South Africa are predominantly defined contribution pension funds, which have significant implications for members who must participate in the investment decision-making process and who end up bearing the investment risks related to these decisions (Financial Services Board 2015a, 2015b; Levitan and Merton 2015). In a defined contribution retirement fund, the retirement benefit received by a participant upon retirement is not guaranteed and depends on the performance of financial markets. A defined benefit retirement fund refers to a fund for which the retirement benefit received by an individual upon retirement is guaranteed, irrespective of how financial markets perform, and determined by a http://www.sajems.org. Life cycle and balanced funds are popular asset allocation strategies to save towards retirement. Recent research is questioning the efficacy of life cycle funds that switch to lower risk asset classes as retirement approaches
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