Abstract
Climate change is predicted to drive various changes in hydrology that can translate into risks for river ecosystems and for those who manage rivers, such as for hydropower. Here we use the WWF Water Risk Filter (WRF) and geospatial analysis to screen hydropower projects, both existing (2488 dams) and projected (3700 dams), for a variety of risks at a global scale, focusing on biodiversity risks, hydrological risks (water scarcity and flooding), and how those hydrological risks may shift with climate change, based on three scenarios. Approximately 26% of existing hydropower dams and 23% of projected dams are within river basins that currently have medium to very high risk of water scarcity; 32% and 20% of the existing and projected dams, respectively, are projected to have increased risk by 2050 due to climate change. For flood risk, 75% of existing dams and 83% of projected dams are within river basins with medium to very high risk, and the proportion of hydropower dams in basins with the highest levels of flood risk is projected to increase by nearly twenty times (e.g., from 2% to 36% of dams). In addition, a large proportion of existing (76%) and projected hydropower dams (93%) are located in river basins with high or very high freshwater biodiversity importance. This is a high-level screening, intended to elucidate broad patterns of risk to increase awareness, highlight trends, and guide more detailed studies.
Highlights
Published: 24 February 2022The planet’s changing climate is predicted to continue to drive various changes in hydrological patterns and river systems and associated habitats such as floodplains and deltas
We demonstrate how one such tool, the WWF Water Risk Filter (WRF), combined with geospatial analysis, can be used to screen for a variety of risks at a global scale, including risks to riverine ecosystems from both climate change and hydropower, as well as risks to hydropower projects—and their operators, owners, and investors—from climate change and potential regulatory or reputational risk arising from negative impacts to ecosystems
Based on WRF data for 2020, 658 (26%) of existing hydropower dams are in basins with medium to very high scarcity risk
Summary
The planet’s changing climate is predicted to continue to drive various changes in hydrological patterns and river systems and associated habitats such as floodplains and deltas. These changes translate into risks for river ecosystems and their services and for those who manage rivers for specific objectives. The potential for increased drought frequency to negatively impact hydropower generation is a risk for those who operate hydropower dams and manage power systems. At the scale of river basins, hydropower-related risks to river ecosystems, such as fragmentation, may exacerbate risks arising from climate change, such as increased water temperatures. At the scale of policies and investments, climate change mitigation goals can be a driver of hydropower development
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