Using the NZ–DNDC model to estimate agricultural N2O emissions in the Manawatu–Wanganui region

Abstract

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are difficult to quantify at regional and national scales. There is considerable spatial and temporal variability in N2O emissions from soil, partly because of variability in the underlying biogenic processes responsible for soil N2O production. The process-based NZ–DNDC (New Zealand Denitrification-Decomposition) model was used, with georeferenced input data on soils, climate and land use, to map and predict net N2O emissions from farming in the Manawatu–Wanganui region. The Manawatu–Wanganui region has a temperate, maritime climate and the major agricultural land use is pastoral grazing. We created databases of regional soil, climate and farm management information from various available data sources including national databases of climate, soil type and land use, and national agricultural production statistics. The error introduced by upscaling the model was assessed by comparing results using measured site data with the corresponding predictions using the regional approximations. We also examined the effect of climate conditions by rerunning the 2003 simulation using the climate data for the years ended June 1990 and 2004. The modelled net N2O emissions for this region for the year ended June 2003 were 4.6 ± 1.5 Gg N2O–N per year. The total fertiliser and excretal N inputs for the region were approximately 224,140 tonnes, so the percentage emitted as N2O was 2.0 ± 0.7%. The modelled net N2O emissions for the region for the year ended June 1990 were 3.8 ± 2.1 Gg N2O–N per year, indicating annual net N2O emissions in the Manawatu–Wanganui region between 1990 and 2003 had increased by 0.8 ± 0.6 Gg N2O–N (an increase of about 20%). This change can be attributed to both changes in weather conditions and land use and farm management between 1990 and 2003.