USING THE ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR DETERMINING THE MARKET CAPACITY

Abstract

The subject matter of the article is economic and mathematical forecasting models of the market capacity based on the system of influential factors. The goal is to systematize and substantiate theoretical and methodological approaches to forecasting the market capacity in the conditions of the current unstable state of the economy. The following tasks are solved: the factors that influence on the development and amount of the market capacity are completely systematized; peculiarities, advantages and disadvantages of applying available economic and mathematical forecasting models of the market capacity are considered; the necessity for taking into account the structural changes in a number of consumers by age groups is emphasized; the features of the influence of the consumption of luxury goods and goods of prime necessity were is revealed taking into account the return on the change in the market capacity. The methods used are – the system analysis, the factor analysis, the regression and correlation analysis, the methods of cumulative curves. The following results are obtained –the principles of building economic and mathematical forecasting models of the market capacity are considered; the factors that influence on the market capacity at micro and macro level and have a random or systematic nature of the impact were systematized; advantages, disadvantages and peculiarities of multi-factor and single-factor models of the market capacity, in particular, cumulative curves are revealed; compulsory registration of demographic factors (changing the structure of age groups in time) in multi-factor models is suggested; the alternative use of cumulative curves of demand on the groups of luxury goods and goods of prime necessity depending on income is shown. Conclusions. Taking into consideration structural changes in a number of consumers in time, the features of consumption of luxury goods and goods of prime necessity using the factors of the elasticity of demand on income and other significant factors enable mathematical describing the consumption of the basic groups of goods and services, forecasting the amount of their market capacity, determining the critical values of the factors that can completely stop consuming products of a certain group or reduce the consumption to the minimum level.