Abstract
Permafrost monitoring should be organized in different ways within undisturbed landscapes and in areas with technogenic impacts. The state and dynamics of permafrost are described by special indicators. It helps to characterize seasonal and long-term tendencies and link them with permafrost hazards estimation. The risk is determined by the hazard probability and the vulnerability of infrastructure elements. The hazard does not have integral indicators, but is determined by separate spatial and temporal characteristics. The spatial characteristics include the ground’s physical and cryolithological features that are linked with the history of the permafrost. The temporal characteristics are associated with the future evolution of the climate and anthropogenic pressures. The geocryological monitoring content and geocryological forecasting are interdependent and should be implemented together. The adaptation recommendations are based on the analytical algorithms and use the results of permafrost monitoring and permafrost state forecasting. The development of an adaptation program is a recognition of the company’s responsibility for the sustainable development of resource management territories. Risk management uses the methods of the flexible ground temperature regime management.
Highlights
The Arctic and Subarctic are important regions for the country’s natural resources exploration economy
Natural and man-made risks for infrastructure facilities increase under conditions of climate change, the variable response of permafrost, and the transformation of geocryological conditions in connection with economic activities [1]
We mean any corporative activity aimed at reducing the negative consequences of climate change or using the emerging new opportunities for the further socioeconomic development of society and rational nature management [2,3]
Summary
The Arctic and Subarctic are important regions for the country’s natural resources exploration economy. Due to the high variability and unevenness of climatic changes, as well as the dependence of the distribution of the temperature field on a number of regional factors, the developed models of adaptive nature management are regional They are based on particular scenarios that take into account trends in temperature changes, and the specific data on the natural conditions of the studied territories, the peculiarities of technogenesis, and the degree of environmental degradation that has already occurred. In order to correctly use the results from modeling and forecasting the state of the permafrost, it is necessary to use additional indicators that will help investors, economists, and design engineers to make adequate decisions The indicators used, such as the average annual temperature of rocks at the depth of penetration of seasonal fluctuations, the depth of seasonal thawing, and characteristics of the areal distribution of permafrost are important, but are not widely used in practice. Technogenic trends reflect the evolution of artificial soil structures, for example, the weathering of soil in the embankment, or the gradual compaction of foundation bedding
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